North Korea: Spy Satellite Launch Crashes Into Sea

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    The Facts

    • North Korea's attempt to launch a military spy satellite on Wednesday failed, with South Korean officials reporting that the rocket crashed into the ocean and the North confirming the aborted attempt.

    • North Korea's state-run news agency KCNA announced soon after the South's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the projectile had disappeared from the radar that "the 'Cheollima-1' crashed into the West Sea of Korea as it lost momentum due to abnormal start-up of the two-stage engine after one step separation while flying normally."


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    North Korea's satellite launch is a dangerous provocation that cannot be allowed to proceed. A working spy satellite would strengthen Pyongyang's ability to conduct a pre-emptive strike as well as monitor potential incoming threats from the US and South Korea.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    North Korea's satellite program is simply defensive in nature. Pyongyang has a right to exercise its sovereignty and justifiable self-defense in response to the confrontational moves made by Washington and Seoul. A successful launch will help defend North Korea against future attacks by the hegemonic US and South Korea.


    Metaculus Prediction


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