Armenia: Azerbaijan Could Start War Over Border Villages

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The Facts

  • In a video published on Tuesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that his country could face a war with Azerbaijan if it does not compromise on the return of four Azerbaijani villages that have been part of Armenian territory for the last 30 years.

  • Pashinyan said the government's "policy is that we must prevent a war — we must not allow a war to start" and that Armenia could be attacked "by the end of the week" if it does not return to its Soviet-era borders.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Pashinyan has failed Armenians by allowing Azerbaijan to reclaim control over Karabakh and expel ethnic Armenians from the area. This loss of territory is likely a result of the Pashinyan and his government trying too hard to play into the good graces of the West.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Armenian government's primary focus right now is avoiding war. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has lasted long enough. If returning these territories will prevent Azerbaijan from attacking Armenia and will contribute to peace between the two countries then it's the right decision.

Narrative C

Though it is unfortunate that it took this long for Azerbaijan to finally liberate territories stolen from it, the Azerbaijani people have plenty to celebrate as their land is finally returned to them. Some have accused Azerbaijan of using force to secure its internationally-recognized territory, but these falsehoods completely ignore the suffering of so many Azerbaijanis who can now return home.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO