Burkina Faso Extends Transition to Civilian Rule to 2029

Above: Captain Ibrahim Traoré, Transition President of Burkina Faso, during a meeting in Ouagadougou with a delegation from the Peace and Security Council of the African Union taken July 24, 2023. Image copyright: Lamine Traoré/VOA - Voice of America via Wikimedia Commons

The Facts

  • Burkina Faso's military junta has extended its rule for another five years, just as its initial 21-month deadline to restore civilian rule was due to expire on July 1.

  • This comes as a result of a new charter agreed on Saturday during a national consultations gathering civil society representatives and lawmakers, as well as the security and defense forces. Most political parties boycotted the discussions.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Burkina Faso must restore civilian rule as soon as it's feasible to do so. Not only are human rights deteriorating rapidly in the Sahel, but the military government has not made its promised progress toward ending Islamist violence. Instead, Burkina Faso has let the Trojan horse of Russian influence seep into the region and further threaten human rights. A dictatorship will only hurt the country in the long run.

Establishment-critical narrative

This situation is only possible due to the West's absolute impotence in the face of a devastating insurgency that has brought Burkina Faso to its knees. While it once cooperated with the West, Burkina Faso's failures in dealing with terrorism have led the country to turn to Russia to fill the security vacuum. The West African nation must defeat terrorism before democracy can be restored.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO