European Commission: EU-Bosnia Accession Talks Should Begin

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The Facts

  • The European Commission recommended that the European Union commence membership talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina on Tuesday.

  • After first applying for EU membership, Bosnia was granted EU candidate status in December 2022. The European Commission will now give the country a positive recommendation to initiate formal accession negotiations.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While Bosnia is still far from perfect, the country has made impressive progress in adapting to meet the requirements and expectations of EU member states. These concrete steps that Bosnia and Herzegovina has taken show the commitment that the country has to join the EU. During this time of great geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, the bloc must focus on both growth and security. The future of Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs in the EU.

Establishment-critical narrative

The European Commission continues to send new and unclear requirements for EU membership. Bosnia would likely have a better chance of being approved to join a different intergovernmental organization like BRICS — which pushes back on Western hegemonic aims. Bosnia as it exists now has no future, and while EU membership is unlikely to come anytime soon, internal ethnic strife is almost certainly imminent.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO