Haiti's Transitional Council Names New Cabinet

Above: Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille participates in a news conference, at the National Press Club on February 8, 2012 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Mark Wilson/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Haiti's transitional government council has named an entirely new cabinet, elevating Garry Conille from his role as interim prime minister two weeks after his appointment.

  • The now-former top official with UNICEF will also act as interior minister, controlling most of the country's security forces and intelligence operations at a time when Haiti is trying to restore order.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Haiti needs US support on the ground because the government is outmanned and outgunned by violent criminal gangs, making a Haiti-led recovery a pipe dream. Famine, death, and a refugee crisis are looming if the hemisphere's superpower doesn't restore order and back the transitional government — buying time for UN security forces.

Establishment-critical narrative

The world community must support democracy, let Haiti chart its own path, and allow the council to govern. When the outside world, particularly the US, intervenes, Haiti has a history of being ruled by corrupt individuals. Hopefully, an independent and strong Haiti can emerge from this turmoil.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO