Russia: Lukashenko Undermines Putin's Claim on Moscow Concert Hall Attack

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    The Facts

    • Belarusian Pres. Alexander Lukashenko — one of the closest allies to Russia's Vladimir Putin — this week appeared to undermine claims by the Russian leader who alleged that Ukraine had a part to play in the Moscow concert hall attack last Friday. On Wednesday, the death toll stood at 139 people killed, and over 350 people were reported injured.

    • Though the Islamic State (IS) group posted a series of video clips from inside the concert hall and claimed responsibility for the attack, Putin on Saturday alleged that Ukraine had assisted the perpetrators by preparing a "window" for the attackers to escape to Ukraine.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The comments of Lukashenko directly contradict the claims of Putin that Ukraine somehow facilitated this attack. Not only has this been vehemently rejected by Ukraine and the US, but IS itself has claimed responsibility. All the evidence points to them being the perpetrators in this case.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    The US has backed itself into a corner by jumping the gun to proclaim that IS is responsible. How can US officials talk with the media within 24 hours of the attack with absolute certainty as to who and who was not to blame, especially as Russia's investigation to determine the facts is ongoing? This alone is incriminating, notwithstanding IS' ties to Western intelligence.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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