Small Island States Win UN Climate Case

Image copyright: INABA Tomoaki via Wikimedia Commons

The Facts

  • On Tuesday, a global maritime court ruled that greenhouse gases can be considered marine pollution in a victory for a group of small island nations.

  • The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, a UN court on maritime law, said in its first-ever climate change-related judgment, that fossil fuel emissions absorbed by the ocean constitute marine pollution. The "advisory opinion" of the court, could set a precedent.


The Spin

Narrative A

While the Commission and environmental advocacy groups are celebrating this ruling as a historic victory, the reality is that this court opinion is not legally binding, and at least in the short term, nothing much will change. One court ruling specifying carbon emissions as a marine pollutant doesn't do much unless the polluters are held accountable.

Narrative B

This ruling is an important first step in protecting the oceans from carbon emissions. This ruling has real material consequences for the people living on island nations vulnerable to climate change, and this is just one of several cases being pursued in a monumental fight for survival. This case will very likely set a precedent for similar cases in the future.


Metaculus Prediction


Sign up to our daily newsletter