US Agrees to Withdraw Troops from Niger

    Image copyright: USAFRICOM via Wikimedia Commons

    The Facts

    • According to the US Dept. of State, Washington will withdraw its military personnel from Niger and work out a new military agreement amid speculation that the West African country is tilting towards Russia.

    • The decision for an "orderly and responsible" withdrawal of its approximately 1K troops reportedly follows a meeting between Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Niger's Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine on Friday.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The forced withdrawal of US troops from Niger and the failed negotiations on a new military treaty will deal a serious blow to joint counter-terrorism efforts. While bilateral ties are in tatters since mutinous soldiers overthrew the democratically-elected president, jihadist attacks have increased, and cooperation with Russia will make little difference. Yet despite this gloomy outlook, Washington will maintain its partnership with Niger for the benefit of its people and the region.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    That the US will withdraw from Niger is another powerful indication of the West's waning grip on Africa. It's consistent with Washington to claim that the US is concerned about democracy in Niger, although US-trained officers led the coup. As a sovereign state, Niger decides for itself with whom to enter new alliances after France and the US failed to curb Islamist terror in the country. Washington lacks foresight and a viable strategy, and Russia is skilfully filling this vacuum.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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